This article examines the continued softening in lumber markets, the associated drivers of that trend, and actions that can be taken by lenders with portfolio exposure to minimize potential downside risk.

This article focuses on the impact that various factors including supply chain easing, record inflation and the Fed’s actions to curb that trend, are having on forestry markets. It also examines how the industry is reacting.

In this article, we take a look at how pandemic-driven changes in consumer preferences and behavior are impacting demand across numerous forestry product markets and how an industry challenged by continued resource limitations is responding.

With construction designated as an essential service across much of the country since the start of COVID-19, continued, though somewhat diminished, new construction and remodeling demand has helped to sustain U.S. lumber markets. Pricing levels have also been bolstered by downtime taken at some western Canadian sawmills as a consequence of the pandemic and a lack of source fiber due to ongoing government limitations on cutting.

The Trump administration tax policies enacted toward the end of 2017 first showed signs of a positive impact very early in 2018. Economic growth, which had been stagnant at about 2% since recovery from the “Great Recession,” began to increase and home building accelerated in the first half of 2018. This, along with certain supply issues that limited lumber production, markedly drove up lumber prices during the first six months of 2018.